Never has technology played such a dramatic role in our industry
From the very beginnings of the automotive industry, technology has been the driving force behind its advancements, with a little help from periodic styling shifts along the way.
Never, however, has technology played such a dramatic part as is currently the case and 2018 promises to intensify that starring role.
To say that the industry is in the throes of transition is gross understatement. As we have discussed in this column before, all signs suggest that the future of the automobile will be electric, autonomous, connected and shared — and it is at the very beginning of the transitional phase in each of those four respects.
As one auto industry executive suggested, comparing the evolution of electric vehicles to that of audio technology, “we’re now at the eight-track stage.” It’s unlikely that we’re even that far along in some of those other areas.
Further complicating the scenario, not only are advancements in all four sectors occurring concurrently, they are in many ways interconnected.
Looking at them individually, the move toward electrification is perhaps the most advanced and it is evolving progressively, as is the norm for the auto industry. This year will see significant increases in the number of battery electric vehicles (EVs) as well as plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) on offer.
In addition, the pure-electric driving range of those vehicles is gradually creeping up as each new-generation model is introduced — although it remains well below even minimal expectations for traditional gasoline-fueled vehicles.
It is progress, but it’s slow. What’s needed is an advance akin to the introduction of the “cassette tape,” or maybe even a leap-frog to the “CD” era, to make EVs truly attractive to mass-market customers. Without such an advance, the most realistic forecasts see EVs achieving only three per cent to six per cent of the market by 2025, in spite of dramatic increases in model availability and huge levels of government subsidization.
Such solutions are being pursued on many fronts, from individual university labs to mega-corporation tie-ups like that between Toyota and Panasonic. But it’s unlikely any alternative to the now-normal lithium-ion battery will make it beyond the laboratory stage this year.
What is more certain is an ongoing increase in the level of electrification — read hybridization — across a broad range of “ordinary” vehicles, in many cases without any overt identification of the technology that might turn off those not actively seeking it out.
Almost certainly some company, not necessarily a major automaker, will claim to be the first to market with an autonomous vehicle (AV) within the year.
For example, the all-new Jeep Wrangler features what it calls eTorque technology — in effect a mild-hybrid system — without any mention of the H-word.
What we are hearing plenty about, from a multitude of sources, is autonomous vehicles; or perhaps “self-driving” vehicles, as the terminology itself seems to be evolving.
Almost certainly some company, not necessarily a major automaker, will claim to be the first to market with an autonomous vehicle (AV) within the year. Will it truly be an AV? Absolutely not. But adherence to proper terminology seems to be secondary to market advantage in the race to be recognized as an AV pioneer.
In technical terms, a truly autonomous vehicle is one that satisfies ‘Level 5’ criteria — going anywhere under any conditions with no human input other than a destination and no provision for a driver to take control. Many experts believe that capability is years, if not decades, away.
What may be achievable in the near term is Level 4 capability, which will enable a vehicle to operate autonomously only under certain conditions, such as in good weather. during the day, in a defined, well-mapped area or on a road with controlled access. Don’t be surprised if that goal is achieved within the year — at least in prototype form.
Connectivity will be a key to advancing autonomous technology — not just the ability for vehicle occupants and the vehicle itself to connect to the Internet, which continues to expand almost exponentially but for vehicles to connect to each other, on their own frequencies.
As a simple example think of two vehicles approaching a blind intersection and electronically warning each other of their presence so each can take avoiding action. It’s now easily done but needs regulation to ensure dedicated airwaves and protocols for implementation.
All of which converges with vehicle sharing. Car-sharing businesses already exist of course, and have achieved some level of success. The popular projection goes much further, to the point that personal vehicles will give way to individual, electric, autonomous modules available at the touch of a smartphone app.
It’s a utopian if not impossible dream, but it’s not going to happen in 2018.
