The pandemic has disrupted the auto industry, but momentum towards EVs continues.
It has been a tenet of the auto industry, since long before the COVID-19 pandemic upset everybody’s plans worldwide, that the future will be both electric and autonomous, probably in that order.
The impact of the pandemic, however, has already taken a toll on automakers’ budgets for AV (autonomous vehicle) development, with many active programs delayed, if not put entirely on hold. But, apart from launch delays for some near-term product, the electrification transition seems to have maintained its momentum — at least among automakers, if not yet among customers.
Here in North America, at least 10 new fully-electric vehicles (EVs) are scheduled to appear within the next year or so — including several pickup trucks. And they are the tip of the iceberg compared with plans for China and Europe.
On a global basis, BloombergNEF forecasts that, by 2030, 28 per cent of all new light vehicles sold will be EVs. Some EV zealots suggest even higher percentages, while even the most conservative forecasts tend to be in the low 20 per cent range.
What virtually all agree on is that those numbers will be dramatically higher in both China and Europe — the two markets driving EV development and sales with both carrot-and-stick incentives and penalties.
The carrots are substantial direct and indirect financial incentives for buyers while the sticks are draconian CO2 and emissions regulations for the automakers, reinforced by equally punitive fines for missing the targets.
As an example, the EU limit for Fleet Average CO2 emissions are 95 g/km in 2021 and just 59 g/km by 2030. To put those numbers in perspective, the comparable Canada/US numbers are currently on a path of gradual reduction to 99 g/km by 2025 — with nothing locked in beyond then.
On a global basis, BloombergNEF forecasts that, by 2030, 28 per cent of all new light vehicles sold will be EVs.
It’s a chaotic time for automakers, with the potential to create even further differentiation between the products sold in North America and those in other major markets, over the rest of the decade.
A key point, however, is that even in those other markets, EVs are unlikely to be the sole choices offered. Indeed, for the next decade at least, those forecasts suggest that internal combustion engines (ICEs) will continue to be in the majority, even if in some form of hybrid powertrain.
In fact, hybridization is a probable outcome for most models that aren’t pure EVs, given that achieving 2030 EU CO2 levels with an ICE alone would require doubling of its thermal efficiency within the next decade — an unlikely prospect at best.
While EV advocates tend to consider hybrids as compromise solutions, that is not a universal perspective. Not only do they satisfy many of the objectives of pure battery-powered EVs, they typically offer customer advantages in terms of driving range, refuel/recharge infrastructure and time, and overall cost.
Plus, as a recent study by global automotive supplier Mahle shows, they may even have a lower lifetime CO2 impact than many EVs.
According to the Mahle study, in the case of an EV, that lifetime CO2 impact is directly related to the size of the battery it uses. And thus, indirectly, to its driving range.
Mahle, has developed its own dedicated, modular PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle) powertrain, with an electric-only driving range around 100 km, that it says is about equivalent in lifetime CO2 output to a pure EV with a 200-km range — and considerably better on that score than any longer-range EV.
The Mahle powertrain comprises its own dedicated two-cylinder engine, driving through an integrated two-speed electric powertrain that enables either serial or parallel hybrid operation, all under computerized control to select the best combination at any instant. Only an electric motor drives the wheels, but the computer instantaneously determines whether it draws its power from the batteries or the engine/generator or both.
The engine itself is a relatively straightforward, two-valve-per-cylinder, SOHC design, operating on the Miller cycle. What makes it special is its passive Mahle Jet ignition system, which incorporates a spark plug within a pre-chamber where combustion begins (based on similar technology developed by Mahle for Ferrari Formula 1 racing engines).
Because the engine’s sole purpose is to drive a generator, it is able to operate within a narrow band of very high efficiency, the net result being an exceptional 40 per cent Brake Thermal Efficiency.
Mahle says the technology is scalable, for small or large vehicles and although no production-vehicle takers have yet been announced it offers real hope that customers will continue to have some powertrain choice for a while longer, before being overcome by the EV tide driven by regulatory forces.
