A number of automakers are proponents of eFuels, also known as synthetic liquid fuels.
That the future of the automobile not only will be, but must be electric, is now dogma. It’s bombarding us from all directions — through the media, government, and the automotive industry itself.
Governments around the world seem to be competing over how soon they can ban the sale of vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICEs). Norway is leading that charge with a proposal that all new light-duty vehicles sold in the country be Zero-Emission Vehicles or ZEVs by 2025. Less than four years away!
(Note: In this context, ZEVs equal Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) or Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs). Some other sources, including Statistics Canada, include Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) within the ZEV umbrella, even though they also have ICEs.)
At least eight more countries, including the United Kingdom and much of Europe, have proposed similar bans by 2030. And many more countries are considering not the if of such regulation, but the when.
Closer to home, last September California’s governor issued an executive order requiring all new passenger vehicle sales there to be ZEVs by 2035 and, here in Canada, Quebec quickly followed suit. British Columbia had already set a 2040 deadline for ZEV-only sales. Several other U.S. states — perhaps even the U.S. and Canadian federal governments — are considering similar restrictions.
Known also as synthetic liquid fuels, eFuels are constructed from carbon and hydrogen, extracted from water by electrolysis, using electricity generated with wind or solar energy.
Similarly, automakers worldwide are trying to outdo each other’s “plans” for going fully electric. Not to mention all the EV startups that keep popping up, virtually out of nowhere.
All of which seems to ignore one important question: what if customers aren’t ready to accept this dramatic change being thrust upon them? That is a possibility with a very high probability, based on multiple studies and surveys as well as actual sales results.
The proposed ICE bans notwithstanding, research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) predicts that 26-million EVs will be sold annually by 2030, representing 28 per cent of the world’s new-car market. That proportion is expected to increase to 58 per cent by 2040. It’s about 3 per cent globally now.
Here in Canada, BEVs accounted for about 2.7 per cent of the market in 2020. Transport Canada has set targets of 30 per cent by 2030 and 100 per cent by 2040, although a Canadian Press report suggests we will fall well short of those targets.
All those numbers suggest that, even if all the government and automaker “plans” for electric vehicles are realized, there will still be a lot of new ICE-powered cars and trucks sold between now and the dates targeted for their demise.
If those optimistic projections should be upset for whatever reasons, which is a realistic expectation given current market reluctance to commit to this brave new world, there will be a lot more new ICEs on the roads between now and then, each with a 15-year lifespan still ahead of them. Plus, there will still be the global park of existing ICE vehicles.
Given that prospect, if the real objective is to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and not just to sell EVs and electrical infrastructure, it may be worth considering a parallel path towards that goal — a path that would significantly reduce the GHG emissions from all those ICE-powered vehicles that will continue to be built and operated, however long they may last.
One possible path would be the continued development of ICEs themselves and that will undoubtedly occur to some extent. But, given the additional costs of developing EVs and related technologies, several automakers have already signalled an end to ICE development.
Another potential path would address the fuels they burn, and that one is attracting some serious attention.
Mazda recently became the first automaker to join Europe’s eFuel Alliance, which promotes GHG reduction through the use of CO2-neutral eFuels that could extend the viability of ICEs, either on their own or in hybrid vehicles. Porsche, Audi, Siemens and Bosch are eFuel proponents as well.
Known also as synthetic liquid fuels, eFuels are constructed from carbon and hydrogen, extracted from water by electrolysis, using electricity generated with wind or solar energy.
Porsche and Siemens Energy are part of a consortium developing the “Haru Oni” pilot project in Chile, which is expected to result in the world’s first industrial-scale plant for eFuels, with initial production expected in early 2022.
It’s early days for this technology, but it promises not only to be a drop-in substitute for gasoline, including its distribution infrastructure, but to be competitive with EVs in terms of “well-to-wheel” CO2 impact, according to Porsche.
There may yet be more than one way to achieve our global goals, if we’re open to finding them.
