AUTONOMOUS DRIVING COULD HAVE A FAR GREATER IMPACT ON SOCIETY THAN PERHAPS WE REALIZE
Over the last several years, autonomous vehicle technology has rarely been out of the headlines. Read almost any auto industry publication (including this one) and you’ll likely find regular references to the subject.
But what does it all really mean? Are systems, such as Google’s Chauffeur, Cadillac’s Super Cruise and others really the solution for the future of personal transportation? Furthermore, what are some of the key implications for adoption on a mass-market scale?
One of the key issues is safety. Approximately 90 per cent of vehicle crashes are the result of human error, therefore, having active, automated systems that can significantly reduce the risk of human error, will undoubtedly have a huge impact in reducing both the frequency and severity of collisions — if not eventually avoiding them altogether.
Last year, a report by the McKinsey Global Institute, suggested that the application of autonomous driving technologies could result in a 20 per cent reduction in on-road vehicle crashes.
Fewer fatalities
The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) has reported a 7 per cent reduction in crashes for vehicles that are equipped with a basic forward-collision warning system, and a 14 to 15 per cent reduction for those with automated braking. If those numbers are correct, you can also see the potential impact on the insurance industry and the premiums that drivers pay.
When you layer telematics and vehicle connectivity on top of automated driving systems, emergency response to vehicle crashes will also be impacted since first responders will have a more accurate idea of the type of injuries that await them at the scene and will more likely be able to reduce the risk of severity and fatality as a result.
The term “self-driving” can mean different things to different people and it’s important to note that there are various levels of autonomous vehicle technology.
To help better define what these are, in January, the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) released a standard — SAE J3016 — “Taxonomy and Definitions for Terms Related to On-Road Motor Vehicle Automated Driving Systems” which seeks to standardize categories relating to the level of automation.
Six categories
In total, SAE has defined six different categories of automated vehicle, three falling under human monitoring and control, the others under vehicle monitoring and control. These categories range from a Level 0 where a human driver is responsible for all aspects of the dynamic driving task, to Level 5 which corresponds to “Full Automation.” A Level 5 vehicle would be what most consider a “self-driving” car.
If you were to look at the levels of automation on new vehicles currently being brought to market, most tend to fall into SAE Level 1 (Driver Assisted) or Level 2 (Partial Automation) categories. Level 1 includes examples such as adaptive cruise control, whereas something like Ford’s Active Park Assist would fall under Level 2.
As vehicles become more technologically advanced, the prospect of automated driving as a disruptive technology increases dramatically. Besides safety and insurance rates, another consideration with autonomous driving relates to fuel economy. An article by Kevin Bullis in the MIT Technology Review in 2011 suggested that in the U.S., fuel efficiency gains would reduce C02 emissions by approximately 100 million tons annually.
Infrastructure changes
Author Chunka Mui, in his book “The New Killer Apps” suggested that self-driving vehicles will be disruptive not only to the insurance industry but also to government and municipal revenue streams, since with more vehicles obeying the speed limit and rules of the road (in theory at least) there will be fewer traffic fines, requiring fewer police officers and cameras to monitor the streets.
Utility companies could also be impacted since there would likely be less of a need to illuminate road ways due to night vision technology.
While some of these “consequences” of the widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles may seem a little far-fetched, it does expand thoughts about what kind of efficiencies and good could arise in a society where autonomous vehicles are the norm rather than the exception.
