The last time the Canadian automotive market saw a sales increase as large as was observed last year was in 1997, according to DesRosiers Automotive Consultants.

In its Canadian December sales update, DAC said final sales for 2023 from reporting OEMs came in at 1.664 million units — an increase of 11.8% per cent from the 1.489 million units sold in 2022. An improvement in vehicle supply during the second half of 2023 helped boost sales, which notably and impressively rebounded as pent-up demand from the million units of “lost sales” from 2020-22 was “more than enough to overcome high interest rates, and worrisome economic weakness.”

“Of the many remarkable aspects of 2023’s performance, one of the most notable was the continued gain in light truck share,” said Andrew King, Managing Partner of DAC, in a statement. “For 2023, light trucks continued to push out an ever-shrinking pool of passenger cars, with trucks reaching a record share of 85.8% for the year, as Canadian consumers enjoyed the freedom to choose the vehicles they want to purchase.”

DAC had previously predicted that 2023 would be one of those “rare occurrences” when auto sales increased, regardless of the onset of a recession.

December sales were estimated to be 120,000 units, which represents an increase of 10.7% from the same month in 2022. According to DAC, the market has now experienced 14 consecutive months of year-over-year growth. Furthermore, sales are up in all provinces in Canada, from coast to coast to coast. They were also up 17.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, with the SAAR “regularly tracking at levels near or above 1.8 million units.”

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Although news of new vehicle sales units are in for December 2023, it is also worth keeping an eye on the Canadian used wholesale market — which saw a decline in prices of -0.54% for the week ending on Dec. 30, compared to the prior week’s -0.43%.

Based on Canadian Black Book’s market insights report, the car segment decreased by -0.53% (it was -0.41% the week before), while truck/SUV segment prices were down -0.55% (versus -0.45% the prior week). None of the 22 segments’ values increased for the week.

“The Canadian market continued to decrease, and the overall decrease slowed during the holidays with declines closer to the historical average,” said CBB in its update. “Supply is building with decreasing demand for vehicles at auction on both sides of the border. Upstream channels continue to tap supply before it can be available to wholesale markets.”

In comparison, the United States used vehicle market saw its overall car and truck segments decrease -0.68% last week and -0.70% the week before that. The volume-weighted car segments were down -0.51%, and the volume-weighted truck segments decreased by -0.80%.

As for the Canadian market, the car category saw a decrease across all of its nine segments, with the most significant decline coming from compact cars (-1.20%). This was followed by sub-compact cars (-0.72%) and mid-size cars (-0.70%). Segments experiencing the least decreases were full-size cars (-0.11%) and sports cars (-0.14%).

For trucks/SUVs, the segments with the largest declines were minivans (-1.59%), full-size crossovers/SUVs (-1.36%), sub-compact luxury crossovers/SUVs (-1.16%), and sub-compact crossovers (-1.03%). Other segments with notable depreciations were full-size pickups (-0.64%), mid-size crossovers/SUVs (-0.62%), and full-size vans (-0.61%).

You can read the full report here.

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Cox Automotive released its December sales forecast for the United States and anticipates that the automotive industry will end 2023 with an increase of more than 11% year-over-year. It also foresees General Motors retaining its top spot, and Hyundai Motor stepping ahead of Stellantis.

In a news release, the company said December new-vehicle sales are expected to show gains over last year’s “product-constrained market,” which means that sales volume for the month should increase 6.2% over December 2022. Furthermore, they expect the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) to finish around 15.1 million in December — 1.6 million higher compared to 2022’s sales pace, but slightly lower than November’s 15.3 million level.

“December is generally a strong month for new-vehicle sales as holiday shoppers look for year-end deals, and this year will be no exception,” said Charlie Chesbrough, Senior Economist at Cox Automotive, in a statement. “With supply much higher now and incentives higher as well, this December is expected to finish significantly better than last year.”

However, he also noted that high vehicle prices and high interest rates “remain the industry’s Grinch right now, and that trend will continue into next year.”

As for the automakers, Honda, Nissan, General Motors and Tesla benefited from large year-over-year gains this year. The Hyundai Motor Group (Genesis, Hyundai, and Kia brands) enjoyed a strong year in the U.S. market, with sales up more than 12%. The group surpasses Stellantis (Jeep, Ram, Dodge, Chrysler and other brands) to slot fourth in overall U.S. sales, right behind Ford. Stellantis is the only OEM expected to post lower YOY sales, due to a lower volume/higher revenue per sales strategy.

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The automotive forecast in the United States for the month of December, in terms of total new vehicle sales that include both retail and non-retail transactions, is expected to reach 1,396,700 units, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData.

The projection represents a 13.2% increase from December 2022, which had one additional selling day compared to December 2023’s 26. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to come in at 15.4 million units — an increase of 1.9 million units from December of last year.

“December results cap off the year with a strong performance, illustrated by double-digit year-over-year sales growth and the second-highest consumer expenditure on new vehicles ever recorded for the month,” said Thomas King, President of the Data and Analytics division at J.D. Power, in a statement.

He added that total sales of just under 15.5 million for 2023 are notable as they represent an increase of 12.8% from 2022, which saw 13.7 million vehicles sold. Furthermore, and of additional interest, is the record $578 billion stemming from consumer expenditure on new vehicles this year; this marks the third consecutive year in which U.S. consumers spent over half a trillion dollars on purchasing new vehicles.

“As inventory improves, the average new-vehicle retail transaction price is declining. Transaction prices in December are trending towards $46,055, down $1,274 — or 2.7% — from December 2022,” said King. “However, even with the decline in average transaction prices, consumers are on track to spend nearly $50.4 billion on new vehicles this month — the second highest on record for the month of December and 5.1% higher than December 2022.”

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November new vehicle sales in the United States are projected to jump 10.2% from a year ago thanks to record-level consumer spending, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData.

They are anticipating that new-vehicle sales for the month, which includes retail and non-retail transactions, will reach 1,236,000 units. November has 25 selling days this year, the same as in 2022. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to reach 15.5 million units — an increase of 1.4 million units from the same period last year.

“November results indicate a robust performance with double-digit year-over-year sales growth and record consumer expenditures for the month,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power, in a statement. “The consumer expenditure record was due to strong sales growth, which outweighed a 1.9% decline in transaction prices.”

King continued, noting that sales growth is being helped by greater retail inventory levels, which are expected to finish around 1.6 million units in November despite the lengthy UAW work stoppage that occurred. If the month finishes with the number of units as expected, November will end with a 7.5% increase from last month and a 43.7% increase compared with November 2022.

“However, as inventory and sales volumes improve, the average new-vehicle retail transaction price is declining to $45,332, down $873 — or 1.9% —from November 2022,” said King in a statement, adding that “even with the decline in average transaction prices, consumers are on track to spend nearly $44.5 billion on new vehicles this month — the highest on record for the month of November and 9.5% higher than November 2022.”

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New light vehicle sales showed a notable increase across all provinces in October, based on data reviewed by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants from reporting manufacturers.

The majority of provinces experienced a sales growth that surpassed 20% when compared to the same period a year earlier. In percentage terms, DAC said Saskatchewan led the way with an estimated sales increase of 26.3% for the month. The rest of the Prairie region also enjoyed success, with Alberta up 23.8% and Manitoba up 23.0%.

“With remarkable growth in October capping off a 12-month streak of year-over-year sales increases, the automotive market also saw that success more evenly spread across the provinces as inventory shortages continue to gradually ameliorate,” said Andrew King, Managing Partner at DAC, in a statement.

British Columbia outperformed the national average thanks to a 23.5% increase. And Ontario, which came in slightly below the national average, experienced a sales boost of 17.0% compared to the previous month. Still, DAC said the province maintained the second largest increase so far in 2023 (up 12.3%), and was only outperformed by Alberta (up 12.6% compared to the same period in 2022).

Overall, total new light vehicle sales among reporting OEMs managed to reach an estimated 145,957 units sold for October, an increase of 20.0%. “For the year thus far, the market saw an increase of 11.1% compared to the same time last year,” said DAC.

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Electric vehicles are growing in popularity in the United States as prices continue to fall and technology improves, according to a new survey from FormRush. Key insights from November 2023 show that there are currently 2,442,300 EV owners in the U.S. (7.18 per 1,000 people).

From 2016-2022, there has been a 771.3% increase in the number of EVs within the country. The top states outpacing the U.S. in EV ownership are California, Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, New Jersey, Arizona, Utah and Vermont. California currently leads with 23 EVs for every 1,000 residents.

“EV ownership in the Golden State skyrocketed between 2021 and 2022, jumping 60%. And get this – it grew a whopping 539% between 2016 and 2021! Talk about setting the pace,” wrote Rinas Bullatovci, Senior Content Editor for FormRush. “The state just hit a huge milestone too — a quarter of all new cars sold there in the second quarter of 2023 were plug-in electrics.”

In Nevada, EV registrations surged 89% from 2021 to 2022. In Utah, a state known for its canyons and alpine peaks, nine out of every 1,000 residents own an EV. This represents a 70% spike in EV ownership since 2021. And in Washington, one in every 14 people drives an EV. Registrations increased 56% from 2021 to 2022 in the state.

“The state is definitely gathering speed on the road to reducing fossil fuel dependence,” added Bullatovci. “As EVs replace more gas-powered cars each year, Washington moves closer to its vision of sustainable, eco-friendly transportation.”

Image credit: FormRush

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There have been 12 consecutive months of sales increases so far this year, compared to 2022. The last time something like this occurred was in November 2015, which saw a noteworthy 32-month run of year-over-year sales increases.

That is according to DesRosiers Automotive Consultants’ latest sales update for October 2023. Based on reporting manufacturers, DAC estimates that last month’s sales came in at 145,957 units — up 20.0% from the same period in 2022.

“The market has been on a tear the last three months with gains close to 20% each month,” said Andrew King, Managing Partner of DAC, in a statement. “Clearly pent-up demand and improved vehicle availability are overcoming the headwinds caused by high interest rates and stagnant GDP performance.”

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for October came in at 1.79 million, which is the strongest DAC has seen since January. “Tempering our joy somewhat is the fact that October 2022 was a very weak comparable — indeed the worst October since 2009,” they added.

Furthermore, October’s performance remains below pre-pandemic levels. The same month in 2019 saw sales reach nearly 160,000 units. That to DAC is an indication that there is still a way to go. Still, they did note that 12 months of gains is something to celebrate.

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Provincial new light vehicle sales among reporting OEMs were notably positive last month, September 2023, when sales increases were widespread across Canada.

That is according to DesRosiers Automotive Consultants; its latest update shows that all provinces experienced double-digit increases, with the largest (in terms of percentage) coming from Prince Edward Island — up 39.4%. Nova Scotia followed with an increase of 28.6%.

“With new light vehicle sales up now for eleven consecutive months, it is unsurprising that all of the regions in Canada have shown sales increases over last year,” said Andrew King, Managing Partner at DAC, in a statement. “Variation still exists, but the recovery in sales from the semiconductor shortages is now broadly based from coast to coast to coast.”

Alberta, one of the larger-volume provinces, enjoyed a 27.7% sales increase over September 2022. And DAC said Ontario added the most volume, over 10,000 units, due to a 19.4% boost over the same period last year. So far this year, the province has also experienced the largest sales increase, at 11.8%, while Saskatchewan noted the lowest at just 0.2%. Newfoundland experienced the lowest increase for the month at 10.3%, when compared to the same period in 2022.

The total for new light vehicle sales, again among reporting OEMs for September 2023, sits at an estimated 155,259 units sold, which is up 19.0%. Year-to-date, sales jumped 10.1%, reaching 1.26 million units.

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Luxury sports cars took the lead in DesRosiers Automotive Consultants’ third-quarter segment sales update, gaining 45.5% year-to-date.

The Canadian new light vehicle market has enjoyed 11 consecutive months of year-over-year sales increases. The result is an estimated year-to-date sales increase of 10.1%, when compared to the same period in 2022. And at the segment level, performance is mostly positive.

“A number of passenger car segments showed strong gains, as vehicle availability continued to impact purchase decisions,” said Andrew King, Managing Partner at DAC, in a statement. “However, overall light trucks continued to lead the way despite the ever-important large pickup segment continuing to lag the market.”

The compact SUV and large van segments experienced an increase of 24.9%, but the large SUV segment saw a decline of 14.9%. Still, it also remained ahead of the overall market, thanks to a 16.4% boost year-to-date. The largest decline actually came from the subcompact passenger car segment, which was down 37.2% due to disappearing models and less enthusiastic consumer sentiment.

“Luxury high passenger cars and small pickups also struggled, showing sales declines at 13.5% and 11.0%, respectively,” said DAC in its update. So far this year, passenger car sales are down 3.7%, while light truck sales are up 12.9%.

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The Canadian new vehicle market remained hot this past month as sales from reporting OEMs, estimated by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants, totalled 155,259 units for September 2023 — up 19.0% from the same month in 2022.

“Improved vehicle availability is making a real impact on the market, allowing pent-up demand to be released and easily outweighing any down-drafts from high interest rates and a weak economic environment,” said Andrew King, Managing Partner of DAC, in a statement.

The increase was more than the 18.3% gain observed in August. It also marked the best year-over-year increase seen so far this year. At the same time, September 2023 is being compared to a weak month in 2022, which was the worst September since 2009, according to DAC. September 2023 enjoyed a SAAR of 1.77 million, the highest that DAC has observed since January.

On a year-to-date basis, they also said the market is up 10.1% now, overall, while highlighting some noteworthy gains — including from General Motors, which leads the market with a 14.6% boost, selling 197,349 units for the year so far. Mitsubishi was up 67.9% from 2022, and larger volume brands in the mainstream market enjoyed some nice gains too: Kia was up 31.4%, Subaru 22.3%, and Honda 20.7%.

Furthermore, DAC said the luxury market “saw a number of impressive performances with, among larger volume brands, significant increases for Lexus (up 30.0%), Infiniti (up 23.5%), and Audi (up 20.3%).”

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For the sixth consecutive month new vehicle sales in the United States have experienced a double-digit growth, with September showing an increase of 13.8% from the same period in 2022.

As September is not yet over, the total new-vehicle sales forecast for the month, including retail and non-retail transactions, sits at 1,309,900 units, based on a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. And although September 2023 does have one more selling day than in 2022 J.D. Power noted that, when comparing the same sales volume without making any adjustments to the number of selling days, the final 2023 tally shows an increase of 18.3% from a year earlier.

“September finishes out the quarter relatively strong with double-digit year-over-year sales growth for a sixth consecutive month. Year-to-date total sales through September will be slightly more than 11.6 million units — an increase of 14.5% from a year ago — but still below pre-pandemic levels when sales were north of 12.7 million units,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power, in a statement.

King also said that the UAW (United Auto Workers labour union) work stoppage had a negligible effect on this month’s sales. “However, depending on the duration and scope of the stoppage, there could be disruption to sales results in October and beyond,” he added.

Inventory levels for retail are anticipated to finish around 1.3 million units this month, representing a 15.4% increase from August and a 36.5% boost from September 2022 — though, again, still below pre-pandemic levels. Fleet sales are expected to jump 56.3% from the same period last year.

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