Big winners and big losers pepper the results
Is the glass half full – or is it half empty? Which perspective you choose, when viewing new-vehicle sales, probably depends on your brand affiliation.
Looked at overall, sales in 2010 are making a slow but steady advance over those of 2009. They are up 7.2 percent year-to-date – but just 3.7 percent for the third quarter, which may suggest that they slowed down in Q3. A closer look, however, reveals that sales had already begun to recover during the comparable period last year, so the comparison is skewed, relative to earlier in the year.
Comparing 2010’s results to 2008, which was a near-record year through the first three quarters, Q3 2010 sales are down just 2.5 percent, while year-to-date sales are off by 8.2 percent. And compared to the average for the past five years, Q3 2010 is off just 1.0 percent, while year-to-date is down 3.9 percent. So, relative to historical results, sales during Q3 2010 improved from those of the first half.
That conclusion is borne out by analyses of the Seasonally Adjusted Annual sales Rate (SAAR), which is running in the range of 1.58-to- 1.60-million through September. Based on a six-month trailing average, the SAAR has been slowly trending upward since January, according to data compiled by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants.
After a bit of a SAAR hiccup in August, Scotiabank economist, Carlos Gomes’ current prediction of 1.57-million sales by year-end is again looking achievable, and Dennis DesRosiers has suggested he may soon increase his forecast as well.
Winners and losers
While that overall trend is positive, the same can’t be said for the results of all manufacturers. In fact, very few are closely following the overall trend line. Over the third quarter (July-September), sales for six manufacturers exceeded the market average by more than 10 percent, while those for five others fell more than 10 percent short of the norm.
The biggest winners for the period, compared to 2009, were: Land Rover (+40.6%); Audi (+30%); Porsche (+26.3%); Ford (+19.4%); Infiniti (+19.4%); and Chrysler (+18.0%).
On the flip side, the biggest losers were: Smart (-43.0%); Suzuki (-27.0%); Toyota (-23.7%); Mitsubishi (-21.3%); and Lexus (-17.3%).
Other stats worth noting: General Motors improved its position to just 1.2 percent behind last year; and Honda has finally moved to the positive side of the ledger, with sales for the quarter up 2.0 percent from 2009.
While not right at the top of the charts for the quarter, Subaru (+12.5%) Mercedes-Benz (+11.5%), Kia (+10.7%) and Hyundai (+10.3%) maintained their momentum, on their way to record years.
Comparison to five-year average
Looking at the numbers in the context of sales for the quarter averaged over the past five years, gives a broader perspective on current sales success – or lack thereof.
On that basis, the greatest gainers were: Audi (+70.2%); Mercedes-Benz (+61.5%); Kia (+49.6%); Hyundai (+49.0%); Subaru (+48.4%); and Ford (+34.4%).
The greatest losses, relative to their five-year average, were incurred by: Smart (-43.4%); General Motors (-32.6%); Toyota (-25.2%); Volvo (-17.6%); Acura (-16.9%); and Honda (-14.6%).
Passenger-car sales for the quarter were down 17.7 percent from the five-year average but light truck sales were up by 18.6 percent. Overall, Q3 sales were just 1.0 percent below the five-year average, which is not a bad place to be.
October results
By the time you receive this magazine, October sales results and their analysis will be published in our weekly e-Newsletter, Dealership Digest, as well as on our website www.canadianautodealer.ca.
