With dealerships effectively closed across much of Canada since mid-March, analysts predicted that April’s new-vehicle sales could be reduced by as much as 80%. Unfortunately, their forecasts weren’t off by much. Actual sales of just 45,833 new units in the month were down by 74.6% from April 2019, as estimated by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC). Cumulatively, year-to-date, the market is down 36.7% from 2019.
While detailed records are incomplete prior to 1990, that is believed to be the lowest April sales total since 1951, according to DAC. And the SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales Rate) for the month, based on those estimates, barely topped 450,000 — in what had earlier been forecast as a probable 1.9-million sales year.
What may be more surprising than that dramatic decline is the fact that there were any sales at all, given the severity of the lockdown measures imposed in most of the country. While many, if not most, of those sales were understood to come from lease replacements, they are indicative of some level of demand returning once restrictions are relaxed.
Looking through the lens of “things could be worse,” new car deliveries in Britain in April were reported to be down by 97.3%, and most of those made were from sales completed earlier.
More heartening news is that, thanks in part to strong lobbying efforts by the CADA and provincial dealer organizations, the restrictions are now beginning to be eased in some provinces, as are limitations on online sales — an area that is certain to expand as both dealers and customers become more accustomed to and comfortable with those processes.
In addition, some automakers either have already resumed or are planning to restart limited production by the end of May. So, however faint, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Taken altogether, “this could mean that April 2020 results brought us to the bottom of this chasm and the first tentative steps of recovery can potentially start as early as (this) month,” said Dennis DesRosiers.
Limited results reported for individual brands
Effective with April results, Nissan and its Infiniti luxury brand have joined the extensive list of automakers no longer reporting Canadian sales on a monthly basis. Accordingly the number of actual sales reported for individual brands is insufficient to infer any valid order of ranking on the month. Both individual manufacturer and industry totals will be reconciled and reported quarterly and annually.
That said, even with the limited data available and upheaval in overall circumstances, the results for those automakers reporting follow familiar patterns, as illustrated by market share calculations. All are within 0.1% of their April 2019 values except for Subaru (+0.2% to 2.9%) and Toyota (+0.3%).
A more complete picture will unfold when full Q2 results are released for all manufacturers in early July.
