In spite of the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, October sales of 156,095 new vehicles in Canada were down just 2.1% from the same month last year, based on estimates by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC). Cumulative year-to-date sales of 1,301,121 units through October were down 21.7% from the same period in 2019.
The October SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales Rate) of about 1.9 million, as calculated by DAC, was also close to the norms of recent years.
Combined with Q3 sales that were off by just 3.9%, all those figures suggest that the Canadian market has regained some sense of stability. If that level is maintained for the final two months of the year, we can expect total annual sales of about 1.55-million units — a projected decline of 19.1% — which is a much happier scenario than was contemplated last April.
According to DAC, “the scale of the market decline for 2020 appears reasonably set, and attention will turn to 2021 and the uncertain nature of the recovery that the new year will bring.”
That said, Scotiabank Economics is still maintaining its sales forecast outlook at “1.6-million units for 2020, with still some potential for volatility in the final stretch.”
Reporting brands achieve gains
As a generality, those automakers still reporting sales on a monthly basis tended to outperform the market in October.
Volvo’s 1,005 sales in October represented a 24.2% improvement from a year ago, pushing year-to-date sales to 7,209 units, a modest 13.2% decline.
Kia achieved its best-ever October with 7,460 sales, a 19.4% improvement. Year-to date sales of 61,393 units were down by just 7.5%.
Subaru, too, achieved best-ever October results, with 6,319 vehicles sold, a gain of 12.0% from 2019. The brand’s 42,036 year-to-date sales were down just 11.9%.
Mazda made it a trio of best-ever October results, selling 6,414 new vehicles, a figure up by 6.3% from a year ago. Year-to-date Mazda sales of 48,048 units were off by 16.4%.
Hyundai also outperformed the market with a 4.9% October gain, selling 12,239 vehicles. The Korean brand’s 95,078 year-to-date sales were down by 17.2% from the same period in 2019.
Toyota Canada reported 21,100 combined Toyota and Lexus vehicles sold during the month, without breaking down the product split. That combined figure was up 1.5% compared to the same period last year.
Genesis (-14.3%) was the only reporting brand with results below the market average.
It will be the end of the fourth quarter before all automakers are scheduled to report detailed results so we will have to wait until year-end to get a better sense of relative market performance.
