While some automakers have reported that the now-chronic supply chain issues impeding production are beginning to ease, there is no evidence of any improvement reflected in Canadian vehicle sales through the first half of 2022.
June’s sales of 143.773 new units, as estimated by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC) were not only down 11.5% from the same month last year, they were the lowest for the month since the economic crisis of 2009.
They were also almost flat with the three previous months, so the usual Q2 sales bulge that typically buoys the rest of the year never happened in 2022.
Total Q2 sales of 425,283 new vehicles were down 11.2% from the same quarter a year ago, and 25.2% below those of the pre-pandemic Q2 period of 2019.
Similarly, first-half 2022 sales of 755,876 units were down 11.8% from 2021 and 22.9% from 2019.
“The only crumb of comfort to be found in these numbers,” according to Andrew King, Managing Partner of DAC, “is that the decline in the SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualised Sales Rate) we have seen in recent months appears to have abated – with the SAAR for June coming in at 1.45 million – slightly above the May level.”
While current supply-side issues are limiting sales to well below demand levels, there is a danger that increases in interest rates and inflation, including vehicle and gasoline prices, could take a toll on the demand side as well, potentially moderating the recovery once normal production capacity is restored.
These factors are “unlikely to materially weigh on sales in an environment of still depressed inventory levels,” according to Laura Gu, of Scotiabank Economics. But the question now becomes, for how long?
Light truck share edges upward
Sales of 353,157 “light trucks” (pickups, vans and utility vehicles, including crossovers) were down 7.3% in Q2, from the same period a year ago, but their market share increased by 3.5% from that period, to 83.0% of the market,
Cumulatively, through the first half of 2022, they’ve accounted for 83.6% of the market, a 2.3% gain from a year ago but a slight contraction from their Q1 peak of 84.4%.
Passenger car sales of 72,126 units were down 26.4% from Q2 2021, losing a further 3.5% of market share.
Turmoil in the ranks
While the global component supply issues have affected all automakers, they haven’t done so equally, resulting in dramatic differences in relative sales impacts among different manufacturers.
After ceding the number-one ranking to General Motors in Q1, Ford was back on top for both Q2 and H1 with sales of 72,093 and 115,154 units, up 4.5% and down 9.1% respectively. As a result, Ford’s market share at mid-year was up 1.2% to 15.2%.
Second place depends on how one does the counting. On a combined corporate level, it goes to Toyota, with Lexus sales included, edging out GM by 63,785 to 62,505 for Q2. Toyota alone sold 56,785 vehicles in Q2, a decline of 11.7%, and 92,288 through the first half, down 13.0% from 2021. Accordingly, Toyota’s market share fell by 0.2% to 12.4%. With Lexus included, it was stable at 13.8%.
GM, which doesn’t break down its individual brand sales, sold 62,505 vehicles in Q2 and 110,204 in H1, declines of 6.6% and 14.9% respectively. Those declines cost GM 0.5% of market share, dropping it to 14.6%.
Fourth place in the rankings also depends on how one does the counting. Hyundai and Kia combined would clearly claim that place but although they share a common hierarchy, they have traditionally differentiated themselves in the market. Recognizing that separation, Stellantis claimed fourth place with 47,184 sales in Q2 and 89,771 for H1 – year-over-year gains of 16.5% and 3.7% respectively, bumping market share up by 1.8%, to 11.9%, which was the greatest share gain in the industry.
Hyundai, on its own, ranked fifth, with sales of 35,990, down 10.4%, in Q2 and 60,282, down 3.2%, for H1. Its mid-year market share improved by 0.7% from 2021, to 8.7%.
Honda slides down the ranks
Hyundai’s gains, combined with Honda’s own declines, relegated the Japanese brand to sixth place in the rankings with Q2 and H1 sales of 24,174 and 45,991 units respectively – declines of 36.3% and 28.8%. As a result, Honda’s mid-year share declined by 1.4% to 6.1%. Adding Acura’s modest sales to create a corporate Honda total would not change the brand’s ranking.
Nissan remained solidly in seventh place with 19,984 and 40,524 sales in Q2 and H1, declines of 23.4 and 18.4%, respectively. As a result, Nissan gave up 0.4% of share, falling to 5.4% at mid-year.
Kia claimed eighth place, not far behind in Q2 with 18,304 sales but further back in H1 with just 33,051 sales, representing year-over-year declines of 28.2% and 19.7% respectively. Those declines dropped Kia’s market share by 0.4% to 4.4%.
Mazda ranked ninth with 13,392 vehicles sold in Q2 and 26,311 in H1, year-over-year declines of 31.4% and 23.9% that cut market share by 0.5% to 3.5%.
Volkswagen claimed tenth place with Q2 and H1 sales of 12,694 and 22,092 vehicles respectively, representing declines of 24.0% and 22.2% and reducing market share by 0.4% to 2.9%.
Not far behind, Subaru sold 11,163 units in Q2 and 21,867 in H1, representing declines of 30.0% and 19.6% and dropping the brand’s market share by 0.3% to 2.9%.
Mercedes-Benz retained its familiar 12th place overall and luxury brand sales leadership, ahead of BMW, Audi and Lexus in that order.
Winners and losers
Given the widespread supply-side constraints and their effects on production, sales numbers for any manufacturer may be a reflection of product availability rather than market demand alone.
With that caveat in mind, for Q2 2022, Genesis led the pack in terms of the greatest percentage gain, up 67.5% from a year ago, followed by Maserati with a gain of 26.8% —both with relatively low overall sales numbers.
Other brands to make absolute Q2 gains over last year included: FCA/Stellantis (+16.5%); Ford (+9.5%); and Mercedes-Benz (+7.4%).
At the other extreme, Jaguar experienced the greatest decline (-67.5%), followed by Land Rover (-51.7%), Acura (-46.7%), Mini (-41.5%) and Honda (-36.3%).
Given that many automakers continue to report sales only quarterly rather than monthly, the next complete breakdown of results by manufacturer will be available after the third quarter.
