A healthy perspective to maintain
Over the course of the Canadian International Auto Show in Toronto and the NADA convention in Orlando, in February, we had the opportunity to talk with key players from every facet of the auto industry, including the heads of almost all the Canadian OEMs.
Without exception, the mood we sensed from
those conversations could be characterized as
“cautious optimism.”
Everyone agrees that 2010 is going to be a better business year for the industry than 2009. But no-one is expecting too much, nor willing to forecast more than a modest recovery over the course of the year.
As we go to press we’re awaiting sales figures for March. But February’s spectacular sales results – up almost 25 percent from last year – gave rise, in some quarters, to the notion that the drought is over and it’s back to business as usual.
That may be the case. But it’s unlikely.
There’s no question that such a dramatic improvement from last year – no matter that it was the worst year in recent history – is a very positive sign. And the fact that this year’s February sales were ahead of the average results for the past five years, albeit slightly,
is an even better omen.
But it would be premature, by far, to think that all is blue skies ahead.
In his Observations for February, a monthly newsletter to his clients, Dennis Desrosiers points out that, for most of this decade, new-vehicle sales were well above the trend-line that has held sway since 1960.
History suggests that such a prolonged period of “over-buying” is inevitably balanced by a period of reduced sales. Which is just one of the reasons why we would be wise to temper our optimism with caution.
(By the time you read this you’ll be able to find March’s sales results, along with a full analysis, as well as a summary of DesRosiers’ Observations and videos of some of our executive interviews at www.canadianautodealer.ca.
